The most recent round of talks has resulted in North Korea agreeing to discontinue its nuclear program and further pursuit of nuclear weapons. North Korea shut down its Yongbyon reactor this summer in exchange for fuel oil and humanitarian aid from South Korea. Inspectors have verified the Yongbyon facility to be inactive and the United States has expressed its satisfaction with their findings. However, given the history of erratic behavior on the part of the North Koreans, the current agreement may not be permanent and will only last as long as the North Koreans are satisfied with the amount of fuel oil and other aid they receive in exchange for shutting down their nuclear program. The most likely situation is that North Korea would eventually remove inspectors from their nuclear sites and announce their intentions to resume their nuclear program. This would be consistent with their past behavior. Several years of increasing tensions would result as North Korea sought to increase aid provided to them through a strategy of diplomacy by extortion. Assuming the US administration or the governments of Japan, South Korea, and other countries in the region are not even more hard-line than the present Bush administration, these negotiations would eventually result in the North Koreans receiving increased aid and a pledge by them to discontinue their program of producing nuclear weapons.