Most Probable Scenario
The most probable scenario will likely be somewhere in the middle: Scenario 3. North Korea has consistently shown weakness against China and Japan, the two dominant states in Asia. While North Korea wants to gain regional influence, its lack of food, energy, and economic resources have limited the nations capability to develop more weapons, not to mention median of deployment. However, North Korea will probably continue to shun the UN and its aid programs. The U.S. supposedly made bilateral concessions to appease North Korea, allowing North Korea to collect aid while not necessarily eliminating their weapons program. Because there is some wiggle room for North Korea, they are likely to exploit it by teasing the international community and not following through on its commitment to disarm peacefully. North Korea will remain a rogue state so long as they can continue to reap the benefits of international aid without meeting the demands of the international community.