Politics 174: Global Environmental Politics

(3/9) The Nature & Prospects of the Global Environmental Problematique

I. Introduction
    A. The situation, so far, and prospects
    B. The matter of contrasting perspectives
    C. Strategies, tactics and their discontents
 
II. The situation, so far, and prospects
    A. What can we say about the current situation?
       1. Fifty years ago, few people had much to say about the environment
       2. Many parts of the industrialized world are in better shape today than 50 years ago
       3. The resource problem has been recast from non-renewables to renewables
       4. There has been a redistribution of externalities as a result of global trade
       5. Transboundary issues are not new, but many have a different character
       6. Market discourse and the end of the Cold War have overrun concerns about justice
   B. What are the manifestation of the "environmental problematique?"
       1. Changes in the earth's biogeophysical systems: water, air, oceans
          a. The hydrological cycle has been impaired in many places
          b. Global climate change seems to be taking place
          c.  Human actions may be affecting ocean circulation and climate
       2. Overexploitation of biological systems, such as forests, land
          a.  Ocean fisheries appear to be in decline
          b. Wanton cutting of tropical and temperate forests continues largely unchecked
          c. Soil erosion and development continue to have negative effects
       3. Buildup of toxics in the environmental with impacts on human health and nature
          a. The impacts of many chemicals are, as yet, not assessed
          b. Growing production of new materials and technologies generates more toxics
          c. Wastes are turning up everywhere and are being exported
       4. Threats to survival of certain species and habitats
          a. Critical ecosystems are threatened where people lack access to resources
          b. Entire species are disappearing, including many which have not been catalogued
          c.  Many ecosystems cannot be restored once degraded
    C. What are the key causes of the environmental problematique?
       1. Current patterns of production and consumption pay little attention to impacts
       2. Overconsumption in some places, underconsumption in others
       3.  Lengthening of commodity chains disperses impacts and disposal of wastes
       4. Discount rates are high and politics is focused on the near-term
    D.  Complexities of our social arrangements further complicate the problem
       1. One set of impacts is localized, but linked through social institutions
       2. Another set of impacts is globalized and diffused through natural systems
       3. Existing governance and management arrangements are inadequate
    E. What are the prospects over the next 50-100 years?
       1. Change will be gradual and we will be like the frog in the pot of hot water
          a. The effects will be increasingly serious in some parts of the world
          b. No new technologies will provide the silver bullet
          c. In some places, stresses on natural and social systems will increase to breaking point
          d. In many places, nature will be overwhelmed by transformations and built systems
          e. World population will stabilize, but living standards will remain low for many
       2. There is always the possibility of a sudden and debilitating catastrophe
          a. Major portions of the Antarctic ice sheet will break off, with sea level rise
          b. Melting of ice could lead to the shutting down of the global heat conveyor
          c. Release of methane inclusions in permfrost could magnify global warming
          d. Diseases might mutate or come out of the tropics, killing hundreds of millions
       3. We have no way of being certain about either of these outcomes
          a. Fifty years ago there were comparable predictions about the future
          b. No one was very accurate then, either
   
IV. There is disagreement over evidence and there are contrasting perspectives over its meaning
    A. How do we know there is a problem?
       1. Observation: we (think we) see things changing over time
       2. Experience: our practices are different now than they used to be
       3. Science: measurement of phenomena indicates changes are taking place
       4. Each of these involves different analytical methods
    B. Evidence and conviction are central to political struggle
       1. Assessment of costs and benefits
       2. Demonstration of interests
       3. Decisions on policies and actions
    C. How do we decide what to believe?
       1. Credibility: whose reputation do we value most?
       2. Legitimacy: which methods produce "reputable" outcomes?
       3. Ideology: what values do we hold most dear?
    D. We see this most clearly in the matter of global climate change
       1. The evidence is based largely on scientific measurement and modelling
       2. The uncertainties are large, which makes costs & benefits difficult to assess
       3. General interests are at stake, but specific ones cannot be calculated
       4. How do we know whether or not to trust the procedures involved?
          a. Some invoke natural variations in climatic systems--God or Nature
          b. Some attack the credibility of the science and whether it is done properly
          c. Some attack the ideology of those who take positions on the issue
          d. The science cannot be separated from the politics
    E. The result are contrasting and conflicting positions
       1. One view has it that environmental problems are "minor" or "non-existent"
          a. The condition of the environment is, for the most part, getting better
          b. Resources, as indicated by cost, are becoming more plentiful
          c. People contribute to economic growth and this benefits nature
          d. The market is the appropriate mechanisms for dealing with any problems there are
      2. A second view suggests that the end of human civilization or life on Earth is imminent
          a. The condition of the environment is getting much, much worse
          b. Resources are becoming more scarce, and conflict over them is inevitable
          c. There are too many people on the Earth, and more will only make things worse
          d. Authoritarian and coercive methods are needed to ensure we survive
      3. A more complex and sophisticated claim might be that the future is not clear
          a. There are serious localized problems as well as global ones
          b. We do not have the capability or foresight to predict long-run outcomes
          c. Problems of poverty and suffering are already substantial around the world
          d. Science can help us to make decision and act, but the issues are political ones
      4. These arguments and claims are both philosophical and practical
          a. To what degree do we depend on nature, and how much can we do with capital?
          b. What are our ethical obligations to other people as well as to nature?
    F. We originally characterized these perspectives in three ways
       1. Malthusianism
          a. Resources are scarce and ultimate supplies are limited
          b. Population grows geometrically, while food increases arithmetically
          c. Even technology cannot alter this relationship over the longer-term
          d. Therefore, either populations must be limited or mass starvation will result
          e. Fewer people will lead to less pressure on biological systems
          f. Population reduction must follow either from coercion or natural processes
      2.  Cornucopianism
          a. Resources are scarce only when prices rise far beyond what people will pay
          b. When prices rise too high, replacements will emerge to provide the same service
          c. Continued economic growth provides the incentives for such innovation
          d. Free markets are the best means to facilitate economic growth
          e. Wealth induces demand for environmental protection
          d. A rich world will be one in which the environment is saved
    3. Redistributionism
          a. The scarcity of resources is a consequence of their appropriation by capital
          b. The rich appropriate too much and waste most of that they appropriate
          c. Environmental degradation is largely a consequence of consumption by the rich
          d. The poor can only rely on the shared resources around them
          e. Environments cannot be fenced off from those who depend on them
          f. Redistribution of wealth and resources would do much to address poverty
          g. States should be free to manage resources so as to benefit the poor
    4. We can be relative sure about the following, however
          a. The maldistribution of world resources is likely to grow greater
          b. The income gap between the well-off and the poor is not going to shrink
          c. Most developing countries will remain relatively poor and weak, with exceptions
          d. Some regimes will be successful in some respects
          e. Many of the same problems we confront today, will still exist in 50 or 100 years

 IV. Strategies, tactics and their discontents
    A. How might we go about dealing with the global environmental problematique?
       1. What institutions are available?
       2. What are their advantages and shortcomings?
       3. Is there some combination that could work?
    B. One possibility is a centralized authority--a world government
       1. There is no single authority that can regulate polluters and destroyers of nature
       2. The "crossing of borders" results in "tragedies of the commons"
       3. Such "tragedies" can only be avoided by allocating responsibility (or property rights)
       4. The world's states must establish a central coercive system to do this
       5. Enforcement of international law will ensure that the environment is protected
    C. A second possibility is a rigorous network of international environmental regimes
       1. States will not give up their sovereignty to a world government
       2. Therefore, they must cooperate in creating effective regulatory arrangements
       3. States must agree that action is required, and they much agree on actions needed
       4. Procedures, targets and deadlines, with appropriate incentives are necessary
       5. Mutual policing and self-regulation will ensure that the environment is protected
    D. We live in a world of capitalist markets, and markets can be effective at regulation
       1. Environmental degradation is a result of externalities
       2. These environmental and social costs must be internalized
       3. Property rights, proper pricing, and markets can be used for this purpose
       4. The profit motive will generate innovation, technologies, and techniques
       5. People will then consume the "correct" quantity of environment and resources
    E. There is also a deeply-held belief that "technology" can rescue us from any problems that might arise
        1. Hollander, for example, seems to think that solar and nuclear are appropriate in specific places
        2. An effective method for capturing and storing carbon could address global climate change
        3. The transformation of plants into medicines through genetic research may alleviate serious health problems
        4. Genetic modification of food plants can increase their productivity enormously, and feed the world
        5. What these ideas omit is the social context in which technologies are developed and disseminated
    F. In short, there are probably no simple, straightforward strategies for addressing the environmental problematique
        1. Human social behaviors and institutions are too complex to be managed centrally
        2. Neither governments nor markets are in a position to impose or offer the necessary incentives for change
        3. Most governments and elites are loathe to propose major social changes in response to uncertain impacts
        4. This suggest that the effective "rescue of the global environment" will only occur through
            a. A response to a rather sudden natural catastrophe, or
            b. A broad-based, transnational political movement that can, somehow, transform current bases of action

    E. What about domestic political action?  Does that make any sense?
       1. Political action through public concern and demans
       2. Political parties, such as the German Greens
       3. Community and grassroots projects
       4. Social movement mobilization



3/11: What are we to do?

I. Who can or will protect nature and the global environment?
    A. There are multiple and somewhat conflicting answers
        1. Power: if dominant states can impose their wills on everyone else, we can protect nature
        2. Markets: if we can get the costs “right,” we’ll use resources more efficiently
        3. Enlightened self-interest: if we want to protect what we have, we’ll change
        4. Science: if we “know” what is going to happen, we can adjust our behavior
        5. Law: if we change the regulations, we can change people’s behavior
    B. Each of these is incomplete, or even incorrect, in taking it for granted that:
        1. States exercise effective control over their territories
        2. Environmental problems are largely technical ones
        3. Ethics and politics don’t count, or get in the way of solutions
        4. Problems are mostly the result of single causes
        5. People are malleable, simple-minded, and will do what they are told (especially for profit)
    C. Which leads us to ask "what are the alternatives?"
        1. A world government granted police powers to enforce regulations & impose sanctions
        2. Privatization with corporations & other actors left to regulate themselves as "good citizens"
        3. A mixed public-private regulatory system with state, social & economic actors
        4. Which is what is happening...
    D. Consider the following example: The World Commission on Dams (WCD at http://ic.ucsc.edu/~rlipsch/Pol174.w04/www.dams.org)
        1. Established in 1998 by World Bank & World  Conservation Union (IUCN)
        2. 12 commissioners provided a budget of $8.4 million
        3. Given two years to
            a. Review the “environmental, social & economic impacts of large dams and
            b. "to develop new guidelines for the industry"
        4. Commission's work is advisory, not investigative or adjudicative
        5. But it received a broad range of support and commitments
        6. Final report (Nov. 2000) included recommendations on:
            a. politics
            b. standards
            c. guidelines
            d. best practices & codes of conduct
    E. The 12 Commissioners were vetted by NGOs (which has raised some complaints), including
        1. Ministry of Education, South Africa
        2. CEO, Murray-Darling Basin Commission, Australia
        3. Chair of Industrial Development Services, India
        4. Professor, University of São Paulo
        5. Professor, Cal Tech
        6. Former chair of Oxfam International
        7. President of Asea Brown Boveri
        8. Environmental Defense
        9. Tetebba Foundation, Philippines
        10. Honorary President of the  Int’l Commission on Large Dams (industy)
        11. Founder of the Narmada Bachao Andolan, India
    F. Financial sponsors included:
        1. World Bank and two regional development banks
        2. Three NGOs and five foundations
        3. Eight national ministries and eight national development agencies
        4. Some 18 corporations
        5. Three public power companies and one international organization
    G. What conclusions did it reach?  What was the response to the report?
        1. Public acceptance of key decisions with respect to water development
        2. Comprehensive assessment of alternative to big dams
        3. Examine the costs and benefits of existing dams, and alterations to them
        4. Sustain rivers and livelihoods connected to them
        5. Recognize entitlements of affected people and share benefits with them
        6. Comply with commitments made in planning, implementation, and operation
        7. "Share rivers for peace, development, and security"
    H. This is one demonstration of changing regulatory frameworks

II. The new global division of regulatory labor: its causes, its organization, its impacts
    A.  As the market comes to dominate social life, the demand for regulation grows
        1. People find that certain necessary services are not being provided under globalization
        2. Political systems are not always responsive to demands for such services
        3 Collective action develops in respect to some of the problems of concern
        4. New forms of regulation & governance are pursued by other social actors
        5. Evidenced in transnat’l movements & various kinds of regulatory programs
    B. Some examples of transnational regulatory campaigns



 


    C. Actors involved in these campaigns come in a variety of transnational forms
        1. Corporations & associations: ISO 14000; Business Council for Sustainable Development
        2. Public-private regulatory projects: World Commission on Dams; Forestry Stewardship Council
        3. Non-governmental organizations: Greenpeace; WWF; World Resources Institute
        4. Networks, alliances, coalitions: Climate Action Network; Int’l Rivers Network
        5. Social movements: anti-dam activists, anti-GMO groups
    D. Some networks are quite extensive
        1. The Climate Action Network has 263 member organizations in 70-odd countries
        2. Greenpeace has 43 offices in 30 countries
    E. And other linkages are less visible
        1. There are tens or hundreds of thousands of groups operating locally & nationally
        2. “Local” actors are linked into global networks of “knowledge & practice”--epistemes
    F. To what do these add up?  And what are we to do?
        1. Democratic politics are very under-developed at international level
        2. Such movements and campaigns are aimed at "global governance"
        3. Most of the action takes place through market mechanisms
        4. Politics--such as it is--remains centered within nation-states
        5. What we need is a more conscious and deliberate activist politics
        6. One that is always aware of vertical and horizontal "linkages"
            a. Between the local, national, global
            b. Among movements of different types and issues